As a client of Roche Futures , you will have access to our in-depth analysis in various regions globally. Our on the ground approach is second to none. We have a non-bias approach when it comes to fact v fiction. Whether you have an investment or planning to expand into new markets, Roche Futures can give you an unbiased onion or an in-depth analysis on future drivers in relation to that certain location.
- Social Influence
west and eastern europe
- European Union
the African nations
- Precious Metals
Another key player for the market will be China. A lot of the gains in global equities since early 2016 can be attributed to China's reflation3 in late 2015 and early 2016. China produced what we call a "credit impulse" (new credit as a percentage of GDP) of 31% in early 2016. That credit produced ripple effects throughout the emerging markets as well as the developed markets.
Now the question is how China's recent policy tightening (in an attempt to rein in speculative lending practices) will affect its economy and the global markets. In the past, the "hangover" phase of these credit impulses ended up causing enough strain to require a renewed credit impulse a few years later. It was a constant roller coaster, with new credit as a percent of GDP swinging from 19% in 2008 to 39% in 2009, back to 23% in 2011 then up to 33% in 2013, and then back down to 22% in 2015 before rising to 31% in 2016.
Through mid-December 2017, China's metric for new credit as a percent of GDP is at 28%, which shows that the Chinese leadership is keeping things running at a high level. If that continues, it should continue to provide a tailwind for global earnings. However, if the credit pendulum swings back to the low 20s as it has in the past, we could see some real pressure on earnings in 2018.
- United States
- South America
- Saudi Arabia